Using integrated solutions as market-shaping/market-driving strategy
in oil industry
Part 3
استفاده از "راه
حل یکپارچه" به عنوان استراتژی شکل دهنده بازار و هدایت
کننده بازار در صنعت نفت
بخش سوم
این پژوهش به عنوان
تز پایانی دوره MBA در
یکی از دانشگاه های مطرح اروپایی ارایه شده است
لینک بخش قبلی ( بخش 2)
Recognizing
the Role of Uncertainty
Instead of hunt for definite success
recipes, managers shall change their view about the environment of their
strategic decisions. One of the first steps is to understand the uncertainty
and its central role in the business world (Rozenzweig, 2007). To discuss this issue first the
definition of uncertainty should be elaborated then the sources of uncertainty
in business world will be introduced.
Definition of uncertainty: There is a rich body of
publications in definition for uncertainty in different fields. However, to
narrow down those to scope of this report the definitions relevant to
opportunity and decision making are considered which are connected to the
subject of strategy directly. Knight (1921) in his search for the examination
of profit, presents a thorough review of uncertainty, its distinction with risk
and its bearing on economic process. He has two different ideas of uncertainty;
the first is found on possibility of an outcome, the second is about
individuals’ subjective expectation about future (Brooke, 2010). The reason for
uncertainty in circumstances is that due to lack of knowledge, the meaningful
attribution of a probability function to results is impossible (Helmer, 2003). There is a difference between
risk and uncertainty, the distribution of probabilities outlines the amount of
risk. However, if the probabilities are not known, the expression “true
uncertainty” is applicable (van Gelderen et al, 2000).
Sources of uncertainty: Uncertainty can arise from
four different types of sources listed here in order of importance: demand
structure, supply structure, competitors and externalities (Wernerfelt & Karnani, 1987). Lack of perfect causality, customers and competitors and their unclear behaviours, technological change and ambiguity about internal capabilities of organization are mentioned as some of the sources of uncertainty (Rozenzweig,
2007).
Read (2009) specifies that market fragmentation, competitive pressures and new customer tastes are drivers of the trend toward
market volatility. The origins of uncertainty can
be categorized as industry level, the firm level, and the personal level which
are all form of information or knowledge uncertainty (Miller, 1992). Knowledge
uncertainty, developments in technology, consumer
preferences, and behavior of competitors, human’s limited processing ability,
competitors, unfaithful customers, unreliable suppliers, lack of
finance, opportunistic employees are all sources of uncertainty (van Gelderen
et al, 2000)
(Helmer, 2003).
لینک به بخش 4
References:
Brooke, G. (2010). UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT AND
ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTION: FRANK KNIGHT’S CONTRIBUTION RECONSIDERED. Journal of
the History of Economic Though, 221-235.
Helmer, H. (2003). A Lecture on Integrating the
Treatment of Uncertainty in Strategy. Journal of Strategic Management
Education , 93-114.
Knight, F. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit .
New York: Harper.
Miller, K. (1992). A Framework for Integrated Risk
Management in International Business. Journal of International Business
Studies, 311-332.
Rozenzweig,
P. (2007, Februery). The halo effect, and other managerial delusions.
Retrieved 2011, from The McKinsey Quarterly: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/The_halo_effect_and_other_managerial_delusions_1928
van Gelderen et al. (2000). Strategies, uncertainty
and performance of small business startups. Zoetermeer: EIM / Business
& Policy Research.
Wernerfelt, B., & Karnani, A. (1987). COMPETITIVE
STRATEGY UNDER UNCERTAINTY. Strategic Management Journal, 187-1 94.
Managing the New Global Threats
